Hawkeye Poll: Gingrich still leads, but support may be softening
Newt Gingrich continues to retain his frontrunner status in Iowa among candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination, but his support in the state may be declining, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today.
With the Iowa caucuses just three weeks away, Gingrich retains his lead over Mitt Romney, with 29.8 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers indicating that they would vote for Gingrich and 20.3 percent of the respondents supporting Romney if the caucuses were held today. Ron Paul placed third with 10.7 percent. Among other candidates, Michelle Bachman had 8.5 percent, Rick Perry had 8.2 percent, Rick Santorum had 5.3 percent, Herman Cain had 4.4 percent, and John Huntsman had 1.5 percent.
Cain's announcement to suspend his campaign occurred midway through polling. A comparison of responses before and after his announcement on Dec. 3 shows his support decreasing from 6.5 percent to 2.9 percent. After Cain's departure from the race, the survey found support for Gingrich dropping from 37.7 percent to 24.4 percent. The prime beneficiaries appear to be Paul, whose support increased from 7.1 percent to 13 percent; Perry, who went from 4.8 percent to 10.4 percent; and Santorum, who went from 2.7 percent to 7.0 percent. The percentage of respondents who were not sure who their choice would be also increased from 5.6 percent to 13.8 percent. Cain supporters appear to spread out among the other candidates in the race.
Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll, says that although Gingrich is currently in the lead, he may be losing support.
"Gingrich's 29.8 percent share among likely GOP caucus-goers still gives him a nine-point lead over Romney, but our results show that his support may be starting to slide as it has with previous frontrunners," Boehmke says. "The gap has closed to 5.1 percentage points even though Romney's support has changed very little."
Gingrich's lead over Romney is smaller among "very likely" caucus-goers, with 29.0 percent stating they would vote for him if the caucuses were held today compared to 22.6 percent who identified Romney as their preferred candidate. This gap widened among those "somewhat likely" to attend the caucuses, with 31.2 percent supporting Gingrich and 16 percent supporting Romney if the caucuses were held today. Among "very likely" caucus-goers, Bachmann placed third with 11.2 percent of respondents.
Similar results occur among "strong" Republicans—28.9 percent would vote for Gingrich and 23.1 percent would vote for Romney if the caucuses were held today. Gingrich's lead is larger when looking at Iowans who identify as Republican but "not strongly." Of those, 35.9 percent would vote for Gingrich and 20.7 percent would vote for Romney in the caucuses. Of those who identified as "not strong" Republicans, 8.6 percent said they would support Paul.
"Gingrich faces at least two obstacles according to our data," Boehmke says. "His run at the top may be starting to tail off as it has for previous front-runners. He also faces the challenge of turning out his supporters on caucus night, which will be critical since the gap between him and Romney is narrower among 'very likely' GOP caucusers and 'strong' Republicans."
Caroline Tolbert, professor of political science in CLAS and co-author of the 2011 book Why Iowa?, says campaigning in Iowa matters for support on caucus night.
"Bachman, Santorum, and Ron Paul have campaigned extensively in Iowa, while Gingrich has spent little time in the state. Romney built a strong network of support in Iowa four years ago that voters remember today," Tolbert says. "Candidate support among strong Republicans and very likely caucus-goers is our best predictor of success in the caucuses, given expected low turnout. While Gingrich is polling well, his minimal staff and grassroots organization in Iowa suggests he may be unable to turnout supporters on Jan. 3 to the same degree as the others."
In Iowa, Independents can register to caucus on caucus night. Of those who identified as Independent leaning Republican, Gingrich still leads (32.3 percent), but Paul (18.5 percent) is preferred over Romney (13.2 percent). Paul fared well among all Independent groups (19.6 percent).
Tea Party supporters may be mobilized this election. Seventy-four percent of likely Republican caucus-goers support the Tea Party. Among respondents who "strongly" or "somewhat" support the Tea Party movement, Gingrich's support is more than twice as high as Romney's. Sixteen percent of supporters would vote for Romney, while 33.8 percent would vote for Gingrich. Bachman had the backing of 11.5 percent of Tea Party supporters and Paul 10.8 percent.
"Gingrich has become the Tea Party candidate in this race, and this bodes well for him," Tolbert says. "Turnout of Tea Party supporters on caucus night could be key to his success in the state."
Romney does better among those who did not express support of the movement, with 38.6 percent of those who "neither support nor oppose" and 36.9 percent of those who "oppose" the movement supporting him.
Preference between the two front-runners varied due to basic demographic factors. Romney received slightly more support among female Iowans than among male Iowans; 23.7 percent of female Iowans would vote for Romney if the caucuses were held today, while 17.6 percent of male Iowans indicated the same preference. In contrast, more male Iowans expressed support for Gingrich (34.4 percent compared to 24.1 percent of female Iowans).
Romney's greatest support came from respondents aged 70 or older (27.9 percent), with other age groups ranging from 11.7 percent (aged 18-34) to 18.8 percent (aged 55-69). Preference for Gingrich was steady across all age groups. If the caucuses were held today, 25.2 percent of Iowans aged 18-34, 35.8 percent aged 35-54, 24.6 percent aged 55-69, and 31.5 percent aged 70 years or older would vote for Gingrich.
Detailed analysis of the poll follows. Topline results for the polls are available at: http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/december/121211Caucus_Hawkeye_Poll_topline.pdf. Poll methodology is available at:http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/december/121211Caucus_Hawkeye_Poll_Methodology.pdf.
Romney/Iowa Victory Center Iowa City Grand Opening with John Archer on Saturday, July 7, 2012
