UI Hawkeye Poll: Huckabee gaining; Clinton and Obama battling for top spot
Mitt Romney continues to hold a strong lead in Iowa among candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination. But Mike Huckabee's Iowa numbers -- buoyed, perhaps, by growing support among Evangelical Christians -- have jumped significantly since August, putting him in a near-tie with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, according to a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll of likely GOP caucus-goers released today, Monday, Oct. 29, 2007.
Despite Giuliani's lead in most national polls, Romney holds a strong lead in Iowa at 36.2 percent, with Giuliani second at 13.1 percent, Huckabee third with 12.8 percent and Thompson fourth at 11.4 percent. John McCain has 6.0 percent.
In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, meanwhile, a slip in John Edwards' numbers has allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their grips on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. Among all likely Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Obama with 26.6 percent, Edwards with 20.0 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.
These results are from a random, statewide poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa conducted Oct. 17 through 24. The Republican sample consists of 285 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percent. The Democratic likely caucus-goer sample consists of 306 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percent. Respondents in both samples were asked to name the candidate they would support if the caucus were today.
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David Redlawsk, director of the UI Hawkeye Poll and associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, said the Republican results show that Romney is continuing to build on his solid lead among respondents who indicated that they plan to participate in the Republican caucus, regardless whether they're committed to going or just thinking about it.
"We see no differences between these two groups and no candidate catching up to Romney, who had added more than 8 points to his August lead," Redlawsk said.
At the same time, he said the move by Huckabee is notable, as the former Arkansas governor received the support of fewer than 2 percent of Republican caucus-goers in the August poll, which was taken immediately before the Iowa Straw Poll.
"Huckabee's bounce from the Iowa Straw Poll remains evident as he moves into a virtual tie with Giuliani for second place with Thompson right behind them," Redlawsk said. "McCain has shown some rebound from August, but he remains far behind in Iowa."
On the Democratic front, after declining between March and August, Clinton's support has returned to March levels among likely caucus-goers while Obama's support has also increased. Edwards, on the other hand, continues to see a decline in the number of likely caucus-goers who say he is their candidate.
"Much of Clinton's strength comes from her support among women," Redlawsk said. "She leads with 33.0 percent of women, compared to Obama's 26.5 percent and Edwards' 16.8 percent. But the order reverses with men, where Obama leads 26.7 percent to Edwards at 25 percent and Clinton at 22.5 percent. How well Clinton will actually do depends greatly on the mix of women and men who actually show up to caucus."
