Romney Leaps to GOP Lead in Iowa; Edwards Keeps His Edge
Republican Mitt Romney has pushed from a distant third place into a small lead in Iowa, the continuation of progress he has shown since the first of the year in the Hawkeye state, while Arizona Sen. John McCain has has remained steady and one-time front-runner Rudy Giuliani has slid substantially, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.
The telephone survey also shows that on the Democratic side of the aisle, the race in Iowa is remarkably stable – former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to hold a small lead over Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.
The poll, conducted May 14 and 15, 2007, included 511 likely participants in the Democratic caucus next January, which carries a margin of error of +/– 4.4 percentage points. The survey of likely Republican caucus–goers includes 478 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.6 percentage points.
Romney, who is also on top of the heap in the GOP race in New Hampshire, has nearly doubled since the last Zogby Iowa polling in March and has nearly quadrupled since January. Meanwhile, McCain has held steady over the same time period, while Giuliani has returned to where he was at the beginning of the year after a solid bump up in March. The percentage of undecided in the GOP race has remained constant at 22% throughout.
Republicans:
Romney 19%, Giuliani 18%, McCain 18%, Fred Thompson 9%, Tommy Thompson 4%, Tancredo 3%, Huckabee 2%, Brownback 2%
Democrats:
Edwards 26%, Clinton 24%, Obama 22%, Richardson 6%, Biden 4%, Kucinich 1%, Dodd <1%
Pollster John Zogby: On the Democratic side, Edwards’ work to build support among union households continues to pay dividends, and the benefit he gets from strong union support here in Iowa is very likely to spill over into good numbers for him in Nevada as well. Overall, Romney’s surge makes this a true three–way battle on both sides of the aisle. Lurking in the background are other figures, including Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich on the Republican side and former Vice President Al Gore on the Democratic side, but there is no strong evidence that those potential candidacies will break through immediately into the top tier.”
