2012 Presidential Campaign Blog

CNN Political Ticker: CNN Poll: Who’s on top in hunt for 2012 GOP nomination? « - Blogs from CNN.com

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

“Less than three months before the unofficial start of the next race for the White House, a new national poll suggests there is no frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

But a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday also indicates that the eventual GOP nominee would have the edge over President Barack Obama if the election were held today.”

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - CNN Poll: Who’s on top in hunt for 2012 GOP nomination? « - Blogs from CNN.com

Clarus Poll: Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich Lead Pack Followed By Palin And Pawlenty

Clarus Poll: Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich Lead Pack followed By Palin And Pawlenty

WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new nationwide survey of Republican voters finds that support for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to win the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination has fallen by one-third since March, sliding from 18 points to 12 points. Palin is now running in fourth place for the nomination behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

In all three Clarus polls testing the 2012 nomination strength of a changing roster of potential candidates, Romney and Huckabee have topped the GOP field.

The poll was conducted by Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan Washington, D.C. based polling and research firm. The survey was not sponsored or paid for by any client, candidate or political party.

"Palin gets more attention from the national media than presidential support from Republicans," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus. "The major change since March is that Gingrich has now edged out Palin for third place, even though the two are running well within the statistical margin of error."

"Over the past year, the Clarus Poll has shown Romney's support has declined 4 points while support for Huckabee and Gingrich has remained about the same," said Faucheux. "Regardless of these fluctuations, our latest survey shows that the 2012 Republican nomination contest is wide open."

Here are the results of the Clarus poll on the 2012 Republican choices:

                       JULY 2010
  Mitt Romney          26
  Mike Huckabee        21
  Newt Gingrich        14
  Sarah Palin          12
  Tim Pawlenty         3
  Lamar Alexander      3
  Haley Barbour        2
  Mitch Daniels        1
  John Thune           1
  Bobby Jindal         *
  Jeb Bush             *
  Other
   (volunteered)       2
  Undecided/not sure   15
  * = not included
   in this poll

POLL METHODOLOGY: Survey interviews were conducted live via telephone calls based on a sample of 374 U.S. registered voters nationwide who self-identified as Republicans or as Independents who lean Republican on July 26-27, 2010. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 5 percent.

THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WAS ASKED OF RESPONDENTS: "Of the following possible candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, which ONE would you now favor if you had to vote today... (ROTATE NAMES) Lamar Alexander, Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, or John Thune?

Ron Faucheux, Ph.D., Clarus president and chief analyst, is the author or editor of seven books on politics and teaches at the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute. For more information on Clarus, go to www.ClarusRG.com.

Source: Clarus Research Group

Des Moines Register Poll Has Romney, Palin, Gingrich As Most Popular 2012 Presidential Candidates, Pawlenty, Thune, Daniels Still Relatively Unknown

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100611/NEWS09/6110352/Iowa-Poll-Exposure-lifts-3-GOP-presidential-prospects

Mitt Romney Up Big In New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Polling

Mitt Romney Up Big In New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Polling
 
One of the biggest blows to Mitt Romney's hopes for being the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee was his losing the neighboring state of New Hampshire. Right now it doesn't look like that would be a problem for him in a 2012 run. Romney is by far and away the favorite of voters in the state at this very early point, with the support of 39% of Republicans in the state. Sarah Palin comes in second at 13%, with Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich tied for third at 11%. Ron Paul is fifth at 7%, and if anyone out of the unlikely trio of Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and Rick Santorum was somehow able to win the state they'd be able to say in their victory speech that they started at nothing- Pawlenty registers at 3% with Barbour and Santorum at just 1%.

We've looked at the Republican race for 2012 now in 13 different states and New Hampshire is just the second where there's been a runaway leader. The other was Florida, where we found Romney with 44% to 25% for Palin and 17% for Huckabee. Florida and New Hampshire are two of the most important stops on the early Republican calendar, and if Romney had been able to turn his narrow losses in them into victories in 2008 there's a very good chance he would have been the GOP nominee. Obviously it's still a long way until 2012 but perhaps even more than his lead in our national polling, his broad advantage in this pair of key states speaks to his nominal front runner status.

Mitt Romney Continues To Lead In 2012 Presidential Public Policy Polling

Mitt Romney Continues To Lead In 2012 Presidential Public Policy Polling
 
Mitt Romney continues to lead the way among the top Republicans likely to run for President in 2012. He's polling at 33% nationally to 27% for Mike Huckabee and 23% for Sarah Palin.

PPP state by state polling has found Huckabee strong in the South and Romney winning everywhere else and the national numbers confirm that trend. Huckabee leads his home region with 37% to 25% for Palin and 23% for Romney. But in the Northeast, Midwest, and West Romney leads with anywhere from 37 to 39% with Palin second in her territory and Huckabee getting runner up honors everywhere else.

The big story in 2012 polling continues to be Palin's surprisingly poor performance. She hasn't led in a single one of the dozen individual states we've taken a look at, and runs ten points behind Romney nationally. She is actually the most well liked of the GOP front runners with 66% viewing her favorably to 55% for Huckabee and 54% for Romney, but there's a disconnect between how much voters like Palin and how willing they are to support her for President.

Beyond the regional difference Romney leads with pretty much every subgroup of the Republican electorate at this point- moderates and conservatives, women and men, and every age group except the under 30 crowd.

Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will be added for next month's poll.

Mitt Romney Wins SRLC 2012 Presidential Straw Poll By 1 Vote Over Ron Paul #SRLC

SRLC 2010 Straw Poll Results

If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? Please check the box by the candidate of your choice.

Newt Gingrich	18%
Mike Huckabee	4%
Gary Johnson	1%
Sarah Palin	18%
Ron Paul	24%	(438 votes)
Tim Pawlenty	3%
Mike Pence	3%
Mitt Romney	24%	(439 votes)
Rick Santorum	2%

2. Who would be your second choice in the Republican Primary Election for president?

Newt Gingrich	19%
Mike Huckabee	10%
Gary Johnson	6%
Sarah Palin	18%
Ron Paul	5%
Tim Pawlenty	6%
Mike Pence	8%
Mitt Romney	13%
Rick Santorum	7%

A detailed analysis of the straw poll results will be available on Wilson Research Strategies blog in short order.  http://www.w-r-s.com/blog/

SRLC Announces Wilson Research Strategies 2012 Presidential Straw Poll #SRLC

SRLC Announces Wilson Research Strategies 2012 Presidential Straw Poll

Respondents will answer the following questions on the SRLC Straw Poll Questionnaire, conducted by Wilson Research Strategies:

1. If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? Please check the box by the candidate of your choice.

Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee
Gary Johnson
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Pence
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

2. Who would be your second choice in the Republican Primary Election for president?

Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee
Gary Johnson
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Pence
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

3. Please write the state you are from in the space provided. _______

4. Which of the following categories best describes your age?

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 or over

5. Are you a male or a female?

Male
Female

6. Who did you support in the 2008 Republican Primary Election for President?

John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Rudy Giuliani
Ron Paul
Duncan Hunter
Fred Thompson
Mitt Romney
John Cox

The Southern Republican Leadership Conference Straw Poll will be available for completion Friday and Saturday by registered attendees only. Results will be announced Saturday evening in the Media Filing Room, as well as online at Wilson Research Strategies and www.srlc2010.com.

Public Policy Polling Shows Mitt Romney Leading In 2012 Wisconsin Poll

Romney up in Ohio and Wisconsin According To Public Policy Polling
 
Our state by state look ahead to the contest for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination continues to find the same result over and over again: a closely clustered field but one almost always led by Mitt Romney.

In Ohio Romney leads with 32% to 28% for Mike Huckabee and 26% for Sarah Palin. Romney is also at 32% in Wisconsin, followed by Palin with 27% and Huckabee with 23%.

The numbers in these two midwestern states follow the big trend we've been seeing across the country, which is that conservatives are split pretty evenly in their support between the three candidates at this point but Romney leads overall because of a wide advantage among moderates.

In Ohio Palin has the lead by two points with conservatives over Huckabee and Romney, but Romney's at 43% with moderates to 26% for Huckabee and only 15% for Palin. In Wisconsin Romney leads Palin by 3 with conservatives but widens his overall lead thanks to a double digit edge with moderates. At this (very early) point there is no clear preference among conservatives for any particular candidate, but moderates are going strongly for Romney and that's fueling these leads.

Out of the eight states we've looked at now Romney has led in 6, finished second in 1, and finished third in 1. Huckabee has led in 2, finished second in 3, and finished third in 3. Palin has finished second in 4, and finished third in 4.

GOP 2012: Huckabee 29% Romney 24% Palin 18%

GOP 2012: Huckabee 29% Romney 24% Palin 18%

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 Presidential campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 24% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while 18% would cast their vote for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 14% of the vote while Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty gets 4%. Six percent (6%) of GOP voters prefer some other candidate while 7% remain undecided