2008 Presidential Campaign Blog

Clemson University Palmetto Poll Gives McCain Lead Over GOP Pack In South Carolina

Poll gives McCain lead over GOP pack in South Carolina

CLEMSON – With only three days remaining before the South Carolina presidential primary on Saturday, Jan. 19, the Clemson University Palmetto Poll finds John McCain in the lead, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in second and two more contenders fighting it out for third place in the Palmetto State.

The poll also reveals many voters might still change their minds.

Despite the vote being at the end of the week and the importance of South Carolina in the national pattern of GOP contests, only slightly more than half of the voters had a good idea about whom they would support on election day. Nearly 40 percent of the voters were undecided. (Get the summary report.)

“Based on these figures, we expect that as many as one-quarter of the voters might decide in the last 24 hours before the Saturday election,” said Clemson political scientist and pollster David Woodard.

McCain has emerged from the pack of GOP candidates in South Carolina since August, when former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson held the lead. McCain leads second place Huckabee by seven points.

“The rise of Huckabee from single digits to contention for winning the primary is unusual, but the poll shows that McCain has a solid lead among likely voters,” Woodard said.  “McCain has remained a familiar face to the electorate in South Carolina dating back to his second place finish in 2000. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney are locked in a statistical dead heat for third place.”

The final question in the poll asked voters about how certain they were that their choice of a candidate was conclusive. Fifty-three percent of likely GOP voters on Saturday say they are “very sure” they will stick with their choice. Forty-six percent said they may change their minds.

“We find a very liquid environment in the state and the race is still subject to change,” Woodard said.

The poll was conducted Jan. 9-15. Respondents were chosen for the sample if they voted in at least one of the past four Republican primaries. The margin of error for the figures is plus or minus 4.6 percent for the sample size of 450 prospective voters. All people in the survey said they will vote on Saturday.

New Zogby Poll Numbers In Iowa

Romney Leaps to GOP Lead in Iowa; Edwards Keeps His Edge

Republican Mitt Romney has pushed from a distant third place into a small lead in Iowa, the continuation of progress he has shown since the first of the year in the Hawkeye state, while Arizona Sen. John McCain has has remained steady and one-time front-runner Rudy Giuliani has slid substantially, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The telephone survey also shows that on the Democratic side of the aisle, the race in Iowa is remarkably stable – former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to hold a small lead over Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.

The poll, conducted May 14 and 15, 2007, included 511 likely participants in the Democratic caucus next January, which carries a margin of error of +/– 4.4 percentage points. The survey of likely Republican caucus–goers includes 478 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.6 percentage points.

Romney, who is also on top of the heap in the GOP race in New Hampshire, has nearly doubled since the last Zogby Iowa polling in March and has nearly quadrupled since January. Meanwhile, McCain has held steady over the same time period, while Giuliani has returned to where he was at the beginning of the year after a solid bump up in March. The percentage of undecided in the GOP race has remained constant at 22% throughout.

Republicans:
Romney 19%, Giuliani 18%, McCain 18%, Fred Thompson 9%, Tommy Thompson 4%, Tancredo 3%, Huckabee 2%, Brownback 2%

Democrats:
Edwards 26%, Clinton 24%, Obama 22%, Richardson 6%, Biden 4%, Kucinich 1%, Dodd <1%

Pollster John Zogby: On the Democratic side, Edwards’ work to build support among union households continues to pay dividends, and the benefit he gets from strong union support here in Iowa is very likely to spill over into good numbers for him in Nevada as well. Overall, Romney’s surge makes this a true three–way battle on both sides of the aisle. Lurking in the background are other figures, including Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich on the Republican side and former Vice President Al Gore on the Democratic side, but there is no strong evidence that those potential candidacies will break through immediately into the top tier.”

New KCCI 8 Iowa Caucus Poll Results

Results of The Research 2000 Iowa Poll, December 18-20, 2006.

Sample size: 600 likely voters. Margin of error: +- 4%.

If the 2008 Democratic caucus were held today: John Edwards and Barack Obama tied at 22%, Tom Vilsack at 12%, and Hillary Clinton with 10%.

If the 2008 Republican Caucus were held today: John McCain at 27%, Rudy Giuliani with 26%, and Mitt Romney is next with 9%

KCCI 8 Story